Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
Company Briefing Pack — Institutional Research
Prepared: March 7, 2026 | Market Data as of: March 6, 2026 Close
Applied Optoelectronics designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products including optical transceivers, lasers, laser components, and cable television (CATV) equipment. The company is vertically integrated — it designs and fabricates its own semiconductor lasers (InP-based) in-house, a key competitive differentiator. Primary end markets are hyperscale data centers (AI/cloud connectivity) and CATV/broadband access (MSO network upgrades). Manufacturing in Sugar Land, TX and Ningbo, China/Taiwan.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary 2. Business Overview 3. Financial Overview 4. Estimates & Guidance 5. Valuation 6. KPIs & What to Watch 7. Competitive Positioning 8. Recent Developments 9. Management & Board 10. Governance & Ownership 11. Risks & Debate Map 12. Catalysts & Monitoring 13. Appendix 14. Sources
1. Executive Summary 2. Business Overview 3. Financial Overview 4. Estimates & Guidance 5. Valuation 6. KPIs & What to Watch 7. Competitive Positioning 8. Recent Developments 9. Management & Board 10. Governance & Ownership 11. Risks & Debate Map 12. Catalysts & Monitoring 13. Appendix 14. Sources
1. Executive Summary
The Core Thesis: AAOI is a vertically integrated optical transceiver maker riding the AI data center buildout cycle. The company's proprietary laser technology — particularly for 800G and emerging 1.6T modules — has secured multi-year volume orders from at least one major hyperscaler. Management guided FY2026 revenue above $1B (up ~120% YoY) with non-GAAP operating profit above $120M, representing a dramatic inflection from losses. The stock has responded: +174% YTD. The central debate is whether the 800G ramp executes on time and whether valuation ($7.2B market cap on a company still losing money) already prices in perfection.
10 Key Takeaways:
- FY2025 record year: Revenue $456M (+83% YoY), driven by CATV near-tripling and data center +32%. Q4 revenue $134.3M within guidance. Still unprofitable: net loss $38.2M for the year.
- FY2026 guidance: >$1B revenue, >$120M non-GAAP operating profit. Growth "limited by production capacity and supply chain, not market demand."
- 800G is the story. Fourth volume order from a major hyperscaler received in Q4. Firmware qualification expected to complete in March 2026. Production ramp starting Q2 2026. Demand projected to exceed capacity through mid-2027.
- By mid-2027, management targets $378M/month in transceiver revenue ($90M from 100G/400G, $217M from 800G, $71M from 1.6T). This implies a ~$4.5B annualized run-rate — 10x current revenue.
- Vertical integration is the moat. AAOI fabricates its own InP lasers, giving it cost advantages and supply chain control vs. competitors who source externally.
- Customer concentration is extreme: Top 3 customers = 91% of Q4 revenue (39%, 31%, 21%). One CATV, two data center.
- $250M ATM equity offering filed post-earnings to fund capacity buildout. Dilution risk is real.
- Capex surging: $209M in FY2025 (vs. prior guide of $120-150M). Expanding Texas and Taiwan facilities for 800G/1.6T. Target >500K units/month combined by year-end 2026.
- Consensus is thin: Only 8 analysts covering, with targets ranging from $29 to $125. Mean PT $71 is 26% below current price. The stock is trading well above Street consensus.
- Tariff exposure manageable but watched: <10% of 800G/1.6T component value from China. Expanding U.S. manufacturing to mitigate.
🟢 Bull Case
- Proprietary laser tech creates structural moat in 800G/1.6T transceivers
- Multi-year demand visibility from hyperscaler orders exceeds capacity
- Revenue inflection to $1B+ in 2026 with operating leverage to profitability
- Vertical integration = higher margins at scale vs. Fabless competitors
- Potential for additional hyperscaler customer wins beyond current base
🔴 Bear Case
- $7.2B market cap on a company that has never sustained profitability
- 800G firmware delays already pushed revenue below expectations in Q4
- Extreme customer concentration (91% top 3) creates binary risk
- Execution risk on massive capacity buildout with $250M ATM dilution
- Competitors (Coherent, Lumentum, InnoLight) are also ramping 800G
- Stock trading 33% above consensus mean PT — market pricing in perfection
2. Business Overview
Revenue Segments
| Segment | Q4 2025 Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Key Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $74.9M | 56% | +69% | 400G/800G/1.6T optical transceivers, AOCs |
| CATV / Broadband | $54.0M | 40% | +3% | Amplifiers, nodes, headend equipment, Quantum Link software |
| Telecom / Other | $5.4M | 4% | n/m | FTTH products, telecom modules |
Source: AAOI Q4 2025 Earnings Release (Feb 26, 2026)
Business Model
- Vertically integrated: Designs and fabricates InP (Indium Phosphide) semiconductor lasers in-house — the critical component in optical transceivers. Most competitors buy lasers externally.
- Manufacturing: Sugar Land, TX (HQ + fab); Ningbo, China (module assembly); Taiwan (expanding 800G capacity). Target: ~25% U.S.-based production for 800G/1.6T.
- Revenue model: Product sales (hardware), largely transactional/order-based. No meaningful recurring revenue. Revenue recognized on shipment.
- Customer base: Hyperscale data center operators (unnamed but reported to include Microsoft), MSOs/cable operators (CATV), telecom carriers.
- Pricing: ASPs vary by speed grade. 800G transceivers carry significantly higher ASPs than 400G. Gross margins expected to expand as 800G mix increases.
Geographic Exposure
- Revenue: Primarily U.S. and China. FY2024 10-K showed U.S. 58%, Taiwan 22%, China 20% (approximate).
- Manufacturing: Texas (lasers + modules), China/Ningbo (module assembly), Taiwan (800G expansion).
- Supply chain: <10% of 800G/1.6T component value sourced from China (per management, Q4 call).
3. Financial Overview
Annual Summary
| Metric | FY2027E | Y/Y | FY2026E | Y/Y | FY2025A | Y/Y | FY2024A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 975 | +115% | 453 | +82% | 249 | +12% | 222 |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.82 | n/m | -$0.38 | improved | -$0.81 | improved | -$0.49 |
| EBITDA ($M) | 138 | n/m | -5 | improved | -32 | n/m | 1 |
| Gross Margin | 32.6% | +208 bps | 30.5% | +551 bps | 25.0% | -469 bps | 29.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | 83 | n/m | -20 | improved | -33 | worse | -15 |
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates (BDP BEST fields); FY2025A/FY2024A = consensus actuals. Note: AAOI fiscal year = calendar year.
Quarterly Trend
| Metric | Q1 26E | Q/Q | Q4 25A | Q/Q | Q3 25A | Q/Q | Q2 25A | Q/Q | Q1 25A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 158 | +17% | 133 | +11% | 120 | +13% | 106 | +7% | 99 |
| EPS | -$0.05 | improved | -$0.11 | worse | -$0.09 | worse | -$0.07 | worse | -$0.04 |
| EBITDA ($M) | 2.7 | n/m | -1.4 | worse | -0.6 | worse | -0.3 | n/m | 3.6 |
| Gross Margin | 30.4% | +41 bps | 30.0% | -37 bps | 30.3% | -9 bps | 30.4% | +86 bps | 29.6% |
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates (BDP BEST fields with FPERIOD overrides)
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Highlights (as of Dec 31, 2025)
- Cash & equivalents: $216M (up from $151M at Q3)
- Net debt: $42M
- Inventory: $183M (up from $170M, built for 800G ramp)
- Capex FY2025: $209M (exceeded prior guide of $120-150M)
- FCF yield: -6.2% (deeply negative; capex-intensive growth phase)
- Short interest: 10.6M shares (14.1% of float), short interest ratio 2.1 days
Key Financial Observation: AAOI has never sustained annual profitability. The company has been GAAP net-loss in every year since its 2013 IPO except briefly in 2017. FY2026 is expected to be the inflection year, but Q1 2026 guidance still includes the possibility of a net loss (-$7M to -$0.3M). The path to profitability depends entirely on 800G ramp execution.
4. Estimates, Guidance & Revisions
Management Guidance — Q1 2026
| Metric | Q1 2026 Guidance | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $150M - $165M | $157.5M |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 29% - 31% | 30.4% |
| Non-GAAP Net Income (Loss) | ($7M) - ($0.3M) | ($3.7M) |
Management Guidance — FY2026
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | >$1B | $453M (lagging — many analysts haven't updated) |
| Non-GAAP Operating Profit | >$120M | n/a |
Critical Gap: Management guided FY2026 revenue above $1B, but Bloomberg consensus shows only $453M — a massive disconnect. This suggests most of the 8 covering analysts have not yet updated full-year models to reflect the new guidance. The forward quarterly estimates (Q2-Q4 ramp from $197M to $249M) are more consistent with the $1B target. The low analyst count and stale estimates make consensus unreliable for this name.
Estimate Trajectory (Bloomberg Forward Quarters)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Q/Q | EPS | EBITDA ($M) | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026E | 158 | +17% | -$0.05 | 2.7 | 30.4% |
| Q2 2026E | 197 | +25% | $0.07 | 13.6 | 31.4% |
| Q3 2026E | 249 | +27% | $0.24 | 35.1 | 32.7% |
Source: Bloomberg BDP BEST fields with FPERIOD overrides (3FQ, 2FQ, 1FQ)
5. Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric | AAOI | COHR | LITE | CIEN | VIAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap ($B) | 7.19 | 44.2 | 39.9 | 41.6 | 6.5 |
| NTM P/E | 117x | 36x | 48x | 45x | 29x |
| NTM P/S | 7.5x | 5.6x | 10.2x | 6.5x | 4.0x |
| NTM Gross Margin | 30.4% | 39.6% | 45.1% | 44.0% | 61.3% |
| Operating Margin | -12.0% | 5.0% | -10.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| YTD Return | +174% | +28% | +52% | +26% | +56% |
Source: Bloomberg BDP (Mar 6, 2026 close)
Valuation Context: At $95.58, AAOI trades at 117x NTM EPS — a massive premium to optical peers (36-48x). However, if management's $1B+ revenue / $120M+ operating profit guidance materializes, the stock is trading at ~7x FY2026E revenue (on management numbers, not stale consensus). On a FY2027E basis using Bloomberg estimates ($975M revenue, $0.82 EPS), the stock trades at ~7.4x revenue and ~117x earnings. The valuation only works if the 800G ramp delivers as guided and the company achieves sustained profitability — something it has never done.
Analyst Price Targets
| Firm | Analyst | Date | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenblatt | Michael Genovese | 02/27/26 | Buy | $125 | +31% |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | 02/27/26 | Buy | $80 | -16% |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | 03/03/26 | Outperform | $72 | -25% |
| Northland | Tim Savageaux | 02/27/26 | Market Perform | $55 | -42% |
| B. Riley | David Kang | 02/27/26 | Neutral | $54 | -43% |
| Wolfe Research | George Notter | 03/05/26 | Peer Perform | n/a | — |
| Nomura | Donnie Teng | 03/06/26 | Buy | $41 | -57% |
Source: Bloomberg BEST_ANALYST_RECS_BULK (Mar 6, 2026). Mean PT: $71.25. Median PT: $63.75.
Stock vs. Street: AAOI is trading 33% above the mean analyst PT and 50% above the median. Only Rosenblatt ($125) has a target above the current price. This is an unusual and significant divergence — the market is significantly more bullish than the covering analyst community.
6. Operating KPIs & What to Watch
| KPI | Latest | Trend | What to Monitor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 800G Production Capacity (units/month) | ~90K (Dec 2025) | Expanding | Target >500K combined 800G+1.6T by YE26 |
| 800G Revenue | <$4M in Q4 | Delayed | Firmware qual in March → ramp Q2. Revenue trajectory is THE metric. |
| Data Center Revenue Mix | 56% of Q4 | Growing | Should approach 70%+ as 800G ramps |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 31.4% (Q4) | Expanding | 800G mix should lift margins; watch for "slight headwind" mgmt flagged |
| Customer Count (800G) | 1 qualified + "at least 2-3" interested | Expanding | Second hyperscaler qualification would be transformative |
| Capex Run-Rate | $84M (Q4) | Accelerating | Full year '25 was $209M; '26 will be higher. FCF inflection timing. |
| 400G Revenue | +141% YoY in Q4 | Strong | Bridge revenue while 800G ramps; sustainability matters |
| CATV Revenue | $54M Q4 (down 24% Q/Q) | Normalizing | Q3 was record; Q4 gave back. Cyclicality risk. |
| U.S. Manufacturing % | ~31% of 800G capacity | Building | Targeting ~25% of total from Texas; tariff mitigation story |
7. Competitive Positioning
Competitive Landscape — 800G Optical Transceivers
| Company | Market Cap | 800G Status | Laser Source | Key Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coherent (COHR) | $44B | Shipping | In-house (II-VI heritage) | Scale, diversified portfolio, mature supply chain |
| Lumentum (LITE) | $40B | Shipping | In-house | Premium lasers, Cloud Innovations acq, established hyperscaler relationships |
| InnoLight (300502.SZ) | ~$30B | Shipping at scale | External + some in-house | China cost advantage, NVIDIA supplier, massive volume |
| AAOI | $7.2B | Qualifying (Mar '26) | In-house (proprietary InP) | Vertical integration, cost, laser IP, 400mW platform |
| Ciena (CIEN) | $42B | System-level (WaveLogic) | In-house | Coherent DSP, system integration |
Competitive Assessment
- Moat — Vertical Integration: AAOI's ability to design and fabricate its own InP lasers is rare. Most transceiver makers buy lasers externally, creating supply chain dependencies and margin pressure. AAOI's 400mW laser platform (announced late 2025) enables higher performance 800G/1.6T modules with fewer components, potentially reducing BOM costs 15-20%.
- Vulnerability — Scale: AAOI is 5-6x smaller than Coherent/Lumentum by market cap and revenue. Hyperscalers need massive supply reliability; AAOI's capacity buildout is a race against customer demand timelines.
- Vulnerability — China competitors: InnoLight has been shipping 800G at scale to NVIDIA and is the volume leader. Chinese cost advantages in module assembly are structural.
- Switching Costs: Moderate. Qualification cycles for optical transceivers are 6-12 months, creating stickiness once qualified. But hyperscalers actively multi-source to avoid dependency.
8. Recent Developments (Last 120 Days)
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings: Revenue $134.3M, guided FY2026 >$1B | HIGH Massive guidance upgrade; stock +63% post-earnings |
| Feb 27, 2026 | $250M ATM equity offering filed | HIGH Dilution risk; funds capacity buildout for 800G/1.6T |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Inducement equity grants to new employees | LOW Hiring ramp for manufacturing expansion |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Investor session at OFC conference (Mar 17) | MED Industry showcase; potential product announcements |
| Late 2025 | Fourth 800G volume order from hyperscale customer | HIGH Validates demand thesis and deepening relationship |
| Late 2025 | 400mW laser platform announced | MED Enables higher performance 800G/1.6T with fewer components |
| Q4 2025 | 800G firmware glitch: revenue <$4M vs. $4-10M expected | HIGH Delayed qualification; resolution expected March 2026 |
| Ongoing | Texas + Taiwan facility expansion | HIGH Target >500K units/month 800G+1.6T by YE2026 |
9. Management & Board
Senior Executives
| Name | Title | Background | FY2024 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Chih-Hsiang (Thompson) Lin | Founder, Chairman, President & CEO | Founded AAOI in 1997. PhD EE, University of Missouri. Former research associate professor, University of Houston. 29 years as CEO. | $1.17M |
| Dr. Stefan J. Murry | CFO & Chief Strategy Officer | PhD Physics. Joined ~2009. Dual role as CFO and CSO. Leads investor communications and financial strategy. | $626K |
| David C. Kuo, J.D. | SVP, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer, Secretary | JD. Manages legal, compliance, corporate governance. | $417K |
| Dr. Hung-Lun Chang | SVP & North America General Manager | PhD. Oversees Sugar Land, TX operations (laser fab + module assembly). | $544K |
| Shu-Hua Yeh | SVP & Asia General Manager | Runs Taiwan and China manufacturing operations. Critical to 800G capacity ramp. | $479K |
| Todd McCrum | SVP & GM of Broadband Access | Leads CATV/broadband segment. | n/d |
| Jessica Hung | VP of Finance & Controller | Financial reporting and controls. | n/d |
| Lindsay Grant Savarese | Investor Relations | External communications. | n/d |
Source: AAOI IR Website, Yahoo Finance, SEC Proxy Statement
Board of Directors
| Name | Role | Independence | Key Committees | Background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Thompson Lin | Chairman | Non-Independent (CEO) | — | Founder/CEO since 1997 |
| William H. Yeh | Lead Director | Independent | Chair: Compensation; Member: Nom/Gov | CEO, Golden Star Management (real estate). Fmr Vice Chairman, Central Bancorp. |
| Richard B. Black | Director | Independent | Chair: Audit (Financial Expert); Member: Nom/Gov | Fmr Chairman/CEO, ECRM Inc. Fmr President, Oak Technology. Fmr director, Alliance Fiber Optics (AFOP). Harvard MBA. |
| Dr. Min-Chu (Mike) Chen | Director | Independent | Chair: Nom/Gov; Member: Audit | Partner, EverRich Capital. Financial consulting background. |
Source: AAOI IR Website — Board of Directors page; SEC DEF 14A (Apr 2024). Note: Board appears small (4 members visible); additional members may exist per most recent proxy.
Governance Note: The board appears undersized for a $7B company. Founder-CEO Thompson Lin is Chairman (non-independent). William Yeh serves as Lead Director. ISS Governance QualityScore is 6/10 overall (higher = more risk), with Audit at 10 (high risk). Board diversity and refreshment may be areas of investor concern at this capitalization level.
10. Governance, Capital Allocation & Ownership
Capital Allocation
- No dividend. No buyback. All capital directed toward growth capex.
- $250M ATM offering (Feb 2026): Management has discretion to sell shares into the market. Dilution risk is ongoing and indeterminate.
- Capex priority: 800G/1.6T capacity expansion in Texas and Taiwan. FY2025 capex of $209M exceeded guidance; FY2026 expected higher.
- CEO PSU grants: 355,871 performance-vesting RSUs granted to Thompson Lin in 2023, approved by shareholders in 2024. Aligns CEO compensation with performance, though quantum is notable.
Ownership
- Vanguard Group: 4.62M shares (6.1%), added 552K shares in Q3 2025.
- Institutional ownership: Not available from Bloomberg; estimated ~60-70% based on 13F filings.
- Short interest: 10.6M shares (14.1% of float). Short interest ratio: 2.1 days. Elevated but not extreme. Recent short squeeze dynamics contributed to +174% YTD move.
ISS Governance Scores (Mar 1, 2026)
| Pillar | Score (1=low risk, 10=high risk) |
|---|---|
| Overall | 6 |
| Audit | 10 |
| Board | 6 |
| Shareholder Rights | 8 |
| Compensation | 3 |
Source: ISS via Yahoo Finance (Mar 1, 2026)
11. Risks & Debate Map
Key Risks
🔴 Execution Risk (Critical): The entire investment thesis rests on the 800G production ramp. A firmware glitch already delayed Q4 revenue. If March qualification slips further, Q2 ramp is at risk, and the $1B FY2026 target becomes unachievable.
- Customer concentration: 91% of Q4 revenue from top 3 customers. Loss of any one — particularly the hyperscaler — would be devastating.
- Valuation risk: Trading 33-50% above analyst PTs. Any execution miss will be punished severely given the premium.
- Dilution: $250M ATM offering is open-ended. At $95/share, full execution = ~2.6M additional shares (3.5% dilution). But management could execute at any time.
- Competition: InnoLight already shipping 800G at scale. Coherent and Lumentum are well-capitalized incumbents. AAOI must execute flawlessly to maintain relevance.
- Tariff / Trade: <10% China content in 800G/1.6T, but tariff policy is unpredictable. Manufacturing in China for CATV products remains exposed.
- Cyclicality: CATV revenue (~40% of Q4) is cyclical. MSO capital budgets fluctuate. Q4 CATV was already -24% Q/Q from record Q3.
- Balance sheet: $42M net debt with $209M capex and growing. FCF deeply negative. $250M ATM is a lifeline, not a position of strength.
- Profitability track record: Never sustained annual profitability since 2013 IPO. FY2026 is supposed to be the inflection, but it's not proven.
Open Debate Questions
- Is Thompson Lin's $378M/month revenue by mid-2027 achievable? This implies ~$4.5B annualized run-rate. The company did $456M in all of FY2025.
- How many hyperscaler customers will qualify 800G? Currently one confirmed. Lin said "at least 2-3" want to buy everything AAOI can make. Second customer would de-risk the story materially.
- Can gross margins expand meaningfully? Management guided 29-31% near-term with "slight headwind" from data center mix. Bull case requires margins approaching 35%+.
- Is the vertical integration advantage durable? Competitors are investing in in-house laser capabilities. InnoLight has cost advantages from China manufacturing.
- What is the right valuation framework? Current P/E is meaningless (negative earnings). The stock must be valued on forward revenue/margins — but those are management projections, not demonstrated results.
12. Catalysts & Monitoring Framework
| Timeline | Catalyst | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| MAR 2026 | 800G firmware qualification completion | Gate to production ramp. Delay would undermine Q2/FY26 guidance. |
| MAR 17 | OFC Conference investor session (Los Angeles) | Product demos, customer pipeline commentary, potential new product announcements. |
| MAY 7-8 | Q1 2026 Earnings | 800G revenue ramp progress, customer count updates, margin trajectory, capex/capacity update. |
| Q2 2026 | 800G production ramp begins | Volume shipments to hyperscaler. Revenue trajectory from here determines full-year outcome. |
| H1 2026 | Second hyperscaler qualification | De-risks customer concentration. Would validate multi-customer demand thesis. |
| Ongoing | ATM offering execution / share count monitoring | Track dilution via 8-K filings and quarterly share counts. |
| H2 2026 | 1.6T transceiver development milestones | Next-gen product readiness for 2027 cycle. |
| YE 2026 | 500K+ units/month capacity target | Manufacturing scale confirmation. |
What Would Confirm the Bull Case
- 800G firmware qualified on schedule (March) → production ramp Q2
- Q2 2026 revenue >$200M with data center revenue >60% of mix
- Second hyperscaler customer announced
- Gross margins expanding toward 33%+ on 800G volume
- FCF turning positive by Q3/Q4 2026
What Would Confirm the Bear Case
- Firmware qualification slips past March → Q2 ramp delayed
- $250M ATM fully executed at depressed prices
- Gross margin compression from competitive pricing pressure
- Hyperscaler customer delays or reduces orders
- CATV cyclical downturn accelerates
13. Appendix
Full Quarterly Estimate History (Bloomberg)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS | EBITDA ($M) | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026E | 249 | $0.24 | 35.1 | 32.7% |
| Q2 2026E | 197 | $0.07 | 13.6 | 31.4% |
| Q1 2026E | 158 | -$0.05 | 2.7 | 30.4% |
| Q4 2025A | 133 | -$0.11 | -1.4 | 30.0% |
| Q3 2025A | 120 | -$0.09 | -0.6 | 30.3% |
| Q2 2025A | 106 | -$0.07 | -0.3 | 30.4% |
| Q1 2025A | 99 | -$0.04 | 3.6 | 29.6% |
| Q4 2024A | 100 | -$0.02 | 3.5 | 28.5% |
| Q3 2024A | 63 | -$0.17 | -4.2 | 25.2% |
| Q2 2024A | 44 | -$0.29 | -5.4 | 26.8% |
| Q1 2024A | 44 | -$0.29 | -7.2 | 22.1% |
| Q4 2023A | 65 | $0.00 | 5.0 | 35.3% |
Source: Bloomberg BDP BEST fields with FPERIOD overrides (-8FQ through 3FQ)
Management Revenue Target Breakdown — Mid-2027 Monthly Run-Rate
| Product | Monthly Revenue Target | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| 100G / 400G | $90M | 24% |
| 800G | $217M | 57% |
| 1.6T | $71M | 19% |
| Total | $378M/month | 100% |
Source: AAOI Q4 2025 Earnings Call (Feb 26, 2026), CFO Stefan Murry
14. Sources
- Bloomberg Terminal — BDP/BDS queries for market data, consensus estimates, analyst recommendations, peer comparisons, valuation metrics. Data as of March 6, 2026 close.
- AAOI Q4 2025 Earnings Release & Call Transcript — Feb 26, 2026. Via Motley Fool transcript and AAOI IR website.
- AAOI 10-K (FY2025) — Filed with SEC, week of Feb 26, 2026. Via StockTitan/SEC EDGAR.
- AAOI DEF 14A Proxy Statement — 2024 Annual Meeting (Jun 6, 2024). Board composition and executive compensation.
- AAOI IR Website — ao-inc.com / investors.ao-inc.com. Board of Directors page, management team page, news releases.
- Yahoo Finance — AAOI company profile, ISS Governance QualityScores (as of Mar 1, 2026), executive compensation data.
- Zacks Investment Research via TradingView — Earnings surprise history, Earnings ESP model.
- Simply Wall St, Phemex, Investing.com — Supplementary context on equity offering, competitive positioning, financial analysis.
- MarketBeat — Vanguard 13F filing data (Q3 2025 disclosure).
This briefing pack is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All data subject to revision. Market data as of March 6, 2026.